“The World Ahead 2025”: a year of change… and uncertainty!

As every year, The Economist publishes its special annual issue “The World Ahead,” examining the major trends and events set to shape the upcoming year. Beyond its always “prophetic” cover - open to interpretation and imagination - ACT-ON GROUP offers you a brief end-of-year 2024 “reader’s digest” perspective on the 10 key themes that are sure to mark 2025: a time of great change… and uncertainty!

1 - DONALD TRUMP… AMERICA’S CHOICE!

Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 and his return to the White House in 2025 will have profound impacts not just on the United States, but on the entire world. The “America First” policy may weaken America’s traditional alliances and have real repercussions on the balance of global power, trade, immigration, nuclear proliferation, and geopolitics (EU, Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia). All this in a context of complex multipolarization (and de-dollarization), against a backdrop of war zones, with a clear risk of escalating global tensions - particularly involving China and Russia…

2 - VOTERS WANT CHANGE…

The various 2024 elections saw existing political parties crumble in unprecedented electoral tsunamis. Some were voted out (as happened in the United States and Great Britain), others forced into coalition (as in India and South Africa) and still others pushed into cohabitation (as in Taiwan and France). Thus, 2025 will inevitably be a year of high expectations from voters. The question remains: will political leaders respond? Will they keep their promises? Will they deliver the much-desired change? Failing that, public dissatisfaction could lead to unrest…

3 - INTENSIFYING GLOBAL DISORDER

Mr. Trump might push Ukraine to strike a deal with Russia and give Israel free rein in its conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon or along the Syrian border. A more transactional US posture, marked by skepticism toward international commitments, could embolden players like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to step up regional interference, for example in Sudan. In the event of tensions around Taiwan or in the South China Sea, America’s willingness to confront China isn’t a sure thing…

4 - HEIGHTENED TRADE RIVALRIES

For now, the rivalry between the US and China manifests primarily as a trade war, with the US raising tariffs, including on its partners. In response, Chinese companies seek to circumvent these restrictions by setting up shop overseas - particularly in Mexico and Hungary - while exploring new markets in the Global South. Rather than decoupling, they’re pursuing international expansion despite a global uptick in protectionist measures.

5 - THE “GREEN TECH” BOOM

The Chinese government has banked on the massive export of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles to make up for a slowing domestic economy. This strategy has led to a global surge in demand - outpacing all forecasts - especially for solar energy and storage. This turning point may soon reveal whether global emissions have peaked or not.

6 - END OF INFLATION… AND THEN WHAT?

Major central banks in developed countries are already celebrating victory over inflation by lowering rates. However, Western economies must confront new challenges: debt amid deflation… and the looming risk of stagflation. In tackling these issues, they’ll need to drastically cut public deficits, via tax hikes, reduced spending or growth-friendly measures. At the same time, many countries will have to allocate more resources to defense. These economic adjustments promise to be painful. In the US, an overly protectionist policy with high tariffs could hamper growth and reignite inflation.

7 - ANCIENT QUESTIONS… AND DEMOGRAPHIC UPHEAVAL

While America has successively elected its oldest presidents ever, it’s clear that world leaders everywhere are aging, just as their populations are. Perhaps we should anticipate more talk about age limits for political leaders. Meanwhile, China hunts for economic opportunities in an aging world. By contrast, some parts of the Middle East face a rapidly expanding young population with limited job opportunities, which could lead to regional instability - and fuel large-scale migration.

8 - AI AT A CRUCIAL… AND CRITICAL MOMENT!

This is undoubtedly the biggest business gamble in history: over $1 trillion have been invested in AI data centers - even though companies are still struggling to fully harness AI, and adoption remains limited (while many workers secretly use it). Could investors lose patience and composure or will AI prove its worth - particularly with the emergence of more advanced “agentic” systems or complex autonomous achievements like new drug development, self-driving vehicles, etc.?

9 - THE CHALLENGES OF FREE MOVEMENT

Beyond the flow of goods, global mobility is hitting more and more roadblocks. Worldwide conflicts disrupt international aviation, while Europe tightens border controls, undermining its “Schengen system.” Will backlash against overtourism persist or fade? Many restrictions imposed by cities - Amsterdam to Venice - seem likely to remain…

10 - LIFE STILL FULL OF SURPRISES!

From attempted assassinations during the US presidential race, explosive-laced walkie-talkies, giant rockets caught with robotic arms or the toppling of Bashar al-Assad… one lesson from 2024 is that we should expect anything - and especially the unimaginable. What improbable events could shape 2025? Among “far-fetched” scenarios to watch: a devastating solar storm, discovery of lost ancient texts, a new global pandemic… Only time will tell!

In the special issue The World Ahead 2025, The Economist journalists are joined by leading figures across politics, economics, science, and more.

Contributors include Edgars RINKEVICS, President of Latvia; Javier MILEI, President of Argentina; Sarah C. PAINE, Professor at the US Naval War College; Comfort ERO, President of the International Crisis Group; Fei-Fei LI, Professor at Stanford University and pioneer in AI; Casey HANDMER, CEO of Terratorm Industries; and Tristram HUNT, Director of the V&A Museum.

They share their insights and forecasts for the year ahead.

Find the complete version in:
The Economist - The World Ahead 2025

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